Houthis Reach Strategic Shipping Routes as New Hormuz Attack Deepens Middle East Supply Fears
Weekly Report 38 | 2026
WEEKLY REPORTS
9/13/2026
Houthi Advance Reshapes the Conflict in Yemen
Iran-aligned Houthi forces have made a rapid advance along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, capturing territory close to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and creating a new challenge for Saudi Arabia, the United States and international shipping.
The offensive has brought Houthi forces to strategically important positions around one of the world’s principal maritime chokepoints. The Bab el-Mandeb connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and is an important route for vessels travelling between Europe and Asia through the Suez Canal. Reuters reported that the advance has placed the Houthis in a position to threaten control of the waterway at a time when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is already being disrupted by the wider conflict involving Iran and the United States.
The development has particular implications for Saudi Arabia. Riyadh has increasingly relied on alternative export routes as disruption around Hormuz has complicated shipments from the Gulf. Drone attacks originating from Iraq have also forced the shutdown of a major Saudi east-west oil pipeline, adding another constraint to the kingdom’s ability to move crude without relying on vulnerable maritime routes.
The United States has so far stopped short of a major new intervention against the Houthis. Reuters reported that Washington has provided intelligence support to Saudi Arabia while President Donald Trump has resisted committing the US military to another substantial front during the continuing conflict with Iran. The Houthi advance therefore confronts Washington with a choice over how extensively it is prepared to become involved again in Yemen.
For civilians, the consequences have already been substantial. The Associated Press reported that at least 76,000 people have been displaced since July as fighting intensified, with families fleeing towards Aden and other areas. The Guardian separately reported that nearly 50,000 people had fled the latest advance in western Yemen, where towns and villages have been caught in the rapidly moving front line.
The fighting threatens to reverse several years of relative calm following the 2022 ceasefire. Yemen’s earlier civil war killed about 150,000 people and created one of the world’s most severe humanitarian emergencies. The United Nations has warned that renewed fighting could again produce a major humanitarian crisis.
Another Vessel Is Hit in the Strait of Hormuz
Pressure on international shipping increased further on Sunday after maritime authorities received another report of an attack against a vessel travelling through the Strait of Hormuz.
Reuters reported that a ship had been struck by a projectile while transiting the waterway, according to maritime security information. The incident added to concerns over oil supplies after a series of attacks on commercial vessels during the conflict.
Hormuz remains one of the world’s most important energy corridors. Traffic through the strait has already fallen during the fighting: Reuters reported earlier in the week that only six commodity vessels passed through on one monitored day, compared with nine the previous day and below the recent average.
The simultaneous instability around Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb is particularly significant for regional shipping. The two waterways sit at opposite ends of some of the Middle East’s most important energy and commercial routes. Saudi Arabia’s attempts to bypass disruption in one corridor have consequently become more difficult as fighting spreads towards another.
Trump, meanwhile, said he expected the war with Iran to end “very soon”, while US and Iranian military operations have continued. Earlier this month, the United States launched renewed strikes against Iran, followed by Iranian retaliation.
BRICS Calls for Restraint as Xi Returns to India
The widening Middle East conflict was also prominent at the BRICS summit in New Delhi, where member states unanimously adopted a declaration calling for “maximum restraint”.
The agreement was notable because the expanded organisation includes governments with substantially different relationships to the conflict, among them Iran and the United Arab Emirates. The declaration emphasised dialogue, consultation and diplomacy while also expressing concern over unilateral tariff and non-tariff measures affecting international trade.
The summit also marked Chinese President Xi Jinping’s first visit to India in seven years. Xi received a ceremonial welcome in Delhi as India and China continued a gradual improvement in relations following the deadly confrontation between their forces on their disputed Himalayan border in 2020. Flights, visas and senior diplomatic contacts have gradually resumed, although the border dispute, trade imbalances and broader strategic competition remain unresolved.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian were also among the leaders attending. India has sought to maintain relationships across competing international groupings: it remains closely connected to Russia, maintains relations with Iran and Israel, and simultaneously has extensive political and economic ties with the United States and Europe.
The summit demonstrated both the expansion of BRICS and the political differences within it. The organisation now brings together Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa alongside newer members including Iran, the UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia and Indonesia. India has presented the grouping as a platform for developing economies rather than an explicitly anti-Western alliance, while China has increasingly promoted it as part of a broader alternative to institutions dominated by Western states.
Putin Warns Europe as Russian Strikes Kill Eight in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine continued alongside the diplomatic activity in Delhi.
Russian attacks killed at least eight civilians and injured dozens of others in Ukraine, according to the Associated Press. Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, Odesa, Kramatorsk and the Zhytomyr region were among the areas affected by missile and drone attacks, with energy infrastructure again among the targets. In Odesa, 35 people were reported injured after an overnight attack damaged a residential high-rise.
Ukraine also reported attacks against targets inside Russia, including chemical facilities in the Samara and Perm regions.
Putin simultaneously issued a warning against European governments deploying forces inside Ukraine. He said the arrival of European troops would amount to war with Russia, while rejecting claims that Moscow intended to attack European countries.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has indicated that he would be willing to meet Putin at the forthcoming G20 summit in Miami. Russia has continued to say that it is open to negotiations while maintaining military operations in Ukraine.
Israel Destroys Underground Hezbollah Complex in Lebanon
A major explosion also shook southern Lebanon after the Israeli military said it destroyed an underground Hezbollah installation beneath the Ali al-Taher ridge.
The New York Times reported that the complex was located beneath a strategically important hill overlooking parts of southern Lebanon that have experienced heavy fighting. Israel said the underground facility belonged to the Iran-backed organisation Hezbollah.
The destruction produced a large explosion visible across the surrounding area and renewed concerns among Lebanese residents about the extent of Israeli military operations in the south.
The development comes as the regional conflict continues to involve several Iran-aligned armed groups operating outside Iran itself. Alongside Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, Iran-linked militias in Iraq have also been scrutinised following attacks affecting Saudi Arabia. Iraqi authorities said a recent drone attack against a Saudi pipeline originated from Iraqi territory and subsequently dismissed a military commander in Maysan province.
Political Pressure Builds in Germany, Britain and Sweden
Domestic political developments across Europe produced several significant stories during the week.
In Germany, tens of thousands of demonstrators marched against the far-right Alternative for Germany following the party’s major electoral advance. The demonstrations followed an election in Saxony-Anhalt in which the AfD secured 43.8% of the vote according to preliminary official results, more than twice the 17.2% won by Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats. The result left the AfD just short of an outright parliamentary majority.
In Britain, the House of Commons narrowly rejected legislation that would have permitted assisted dying for some terminally ill adults in England and Wales. The proposed Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill would have allowed eligible adults expected to have fewer than six months to live to seek an assisted death, subject to safeguards including approval by two doctors and an expert panel. The legislation had previously passed Commons votes before returning to Parliament.
British politics also received an unusually large financial intervention. Reform UK received a £36 million donation — approximately $49 million — from a cryptocurrency billionaire, Reuters reported, the party’s second major donation from a crypto investor within a short period.
Sweden, meanwhile, entered the final stage of an exceptionally close national election campaign. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson warned that Swedish participation in NATO missions could be affected if the left-wing opposition wins. Polling immediately before the election showed the contest between the political blocs narrowing considerably, placing the composition of the next government in doubt.
Two Maritime Disasters Hit Southeast Asia
Separate maritime emergencies unfolded in Indonesia and the Philippines.
Indonesian authorities launched a search for a passenger vessel carrying more than 240 people after it lost contact while travelling in the Java Sea. Search-and-rescue teams began operations after communication with the vessel was lost, with authorities working to determine its location and the condition of those aboard.
The search came as the Philippines continued dealing with the aftermath of a deadly ferry fire. Reuters reported that rescuers recovered another 41 charred remains, raising the confirmed death toll to 76. Authorities were working to identify victims while search operations continued.
The two incidents again placed attention on passenger-ship safety across an archipelagic region where ferries remain essential to domestic transportation.
Anthropic Details Wartime and Surveillance Misuse of Claude
A new report from Anthropic provided another example of artificial intelligence becoming directly relevant to international security.
According to Axios, Anthropic identified cases in which its Claude models had been exploited in activities involving warfare, surveillance and repression. The cases included an Iran-linked operation that used Claude in connection with targeting US naval forces, a Yemeni operation involving missile development and a China-linked effort involving the tracking of Uyghurs. Another case involved an attempt to construct a surveillance system covering millions of mobile phones.
The findings concern present-day misuse rather than hypothetical future capabilities. They also demonstrate how commercially available artificial-intelligence systems are increasingly being encountered in military, intelligence and surveillance activities, prompting AI companies to monitor how their systems are being used and introduce restrictions intended to prevent prohibited applications.
Uganda Buries King Oyo as Succession Dispute Continues
In Uganda, thousands gathered for the burial of King Oyo Nyimba Kabamba Iguru Rukidi IV, the traditional monarch of the Tooro Kingdom.
Oyo became internationally known when he inherited the throne in 1995 at just three years old. He died aged 34 while receiving cancer treatment in the United States and was buried at the Karambi Royal Tombs on Saturday, the 31st anniversary of his coronation.
His death has also produced a dispute over succession. The Babiito royal clan selected journalist Edward Rukidi Kijanangoma to succeed him. Members of Oyo’s family have challenged that decision, arguing that a will left by the king identifies a previously undisclosed son as his heir.
Uganda’s traditional monarchies do not exercise formal political authority, but retain substantial cultural importance. At Oyo’s burial, church leaders called for unity as disagreements over the succession continued.
Across the week’s developments, the most immediate international pressure remained concentrated around the Middle East’s maritime routes, with the Houthi advance bringing renewed fighting towards Bab el-Mandeb while another reported attack affected shipping through Hormuz. Elsewhere, Russian attacks continued across Ukraine, BRICS leaders gathered in India, European governments faced significant domestic political developments, and maritime emergencies in Indonesia and the Philippines prompted major rescue and recovery operations.
The full source material for the developments covered in this report is available through the references below. Readers can follow the links to access the original reporting and read each story in full.
References:
Yemen, Saudi Arabia & the Red Sea
• Reuters — Houthi advance in Yemen puts U.S. in a new bind
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/houthi-advance-yemen-puts-us-new-bind-2026-09-12/
• Associated Press — Saudi Arabia has few options as it faces mounting threats from Iran and its allies
https://apnews.com/article/yemen-houthis-war-saudi-oil-iran-us-9c2b68921a16bb7bf9a90d31fb7473d9
• Associated Press — People fleeing Iran-backed rebels’ advance in Yemen describe a ‘hysterical panic’
https://apnews.com/article/iraq-iran-yemen-saudi-arabia-c1359273dd970b969e823356e5ead377
• The Guardian — Nearly 50,000 Yemeni civilians flee as Houthis advance along Red Sea coast
Iran & the Strait of Hormuz
• Reuters — New report of attack on Strait of Hormuz shipping fans fears of threats to oil supplies
BRICS, India & China
• Reuters — BRICS adopts joint declaration, urges ‘maximum restraint’ in Mideast
• The Guardian — Xi Jinping gets red carpet at Brics summit amid thaw in India-China relations
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/12/xi-jinping-brics-summit-delhi-india-china-relations
Russia & Ukraine
• Associated Press — 8 killed in Russian strikes on Ukraine as Putin warns Europe against sending troops
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-putin-europe-839f5b0fc5217afc4cb34e15b01b6eff
Israel & Lebanon
• The New York Times — Israel Destroys Underground Hezbollah Base in Southern Lebanon
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/11/world/middleeast/blast-lebanon-israel-hezbollah-base.html
European Politics
• The Washington Post — U.K. Parliament rejects bill to allow assisted dying for the terminally ill
• Al Jazeera — Second crypto billionaire donates record $49m to far-right Reform UK
• POLITICO — Sweden’s NATO missions are at risk if the left wins election, warns PM Kristersson
https://www.politico.eu/article/sweden-election-nato-missions-risk-ulf-kristersson/
• Al Jazeera — Tens of thousands march across Germany to protest far-right party AfD
Southeast Asia
• Associated Press — Search underway for Indonesian passenger ship carrying more than 240 people after it loses contact
https://apnews.com/article/indonesia-passenger-ship-java-sea-258a5162af6ee7e641926c32f79d9854
• Reuters — Death toll in Philippine ferry fire rises to 76 as rescuers recover more remains
Artificial Intelligence & Security
• Axios — Anthropic report: 5 ways Claude was exploited for war, spying and repression
https://www.axios.com/2026/09/12/anthropic-ai-threat-report-russia-iran-china
Uganda
• BBC News — Uganda’s King Oyo buried amid calls for unity over his successor
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