Sunday Essay 26 | 2026
From Iran to Ukraine, Political Leaders Are Playing a Larger Role in Shaping Global Affairs
SUNDAY ESSAYS
6/21/2026
One of the defining assumptions of the post-Cold War era was that institutions would gradually become more important than individual leaders. Governments would continue changing through elections, political parties would rise and fall, and political personalities would inevitably come and go. Yet the broader international system would remain stable because institutions, alliances, treaties and economic interdependence would provide continuity. The expectation was not that leaders would cease to matter, but that they would matter less than they had during earlier periods of history. Stability would increasingly emerge from systems rather than personalities.
This belief was understandable given the historical experiences that shaped the modern international order. The twentieth century repeatedly demonstrated how much influence individual leaders could exert over world events. The First and Second World Wars were shaped by political decisions made by a relatively small number of individuals. The Cold War similarly revolved around the actions and calculations of political leaders in Washington, Moscow, Beijing and elsewhere. The devastation caused by conflict encouraged governments to create institutions capable of reducing volatility and making international politics less dependent on personal ambition, miscalculation or ideological confrontation.
The decades following the Second World War, therefore, witnessed one of the largest institution-building projects in modern history. The United Nations was established to provide a framework for international cooperation. NATO was designed to create collective security arrangements capable of deterring conflict. European integration gradually evolved into what would become the European Union. International financial institutions expanded. Trade agreements multiplied. The underlying logic remained remarkably consistent across these initiatives. Political leaders would continue to make decisions, but increasingly they would operate within systems designed to encourage continuity, predictability and cooperation.
The end of the Cold War appeared to validate this approach even further. The collapse of the Soviet Union coincided with a period of extraordinary global economic integration. Trade expanded rapidly. Supply chains stretched across continents. Financial markets became increasingly interconnected. Technological innovation accelerated communication and commerce. International institutions appeared more influential than ever before. In many Western capitals, the dominant assumption became that the future would be shaped less by traditional geopolitical rivalry and more by economics, governance and integration. The language of the period reflected this confidence. Discussions increasingly focused on globalisation, rules-based cooperation and international norms rather than great-power competition and strategic rivalry.
For a time, this perspective appeared remarkably convincing. Successive governments entered and left office across Europe and North America without fundamentally altering the broader trajectory of international cooperation. Political disagreements certainly occurred, yet institutions frequently demonstrated an ability to absorb those disagreements without disrupting the overall direction of policy. Markets continued operating. Alliances remained intact. International organisations expanded their influence. Stability increasingly appeared embedded within the system itself.
Recent years, however, have exposed the limits of that assumption. Institutions remain important, but they are operating within a strategic environment that looks very different from the one that existed during the 1990s and early 2000s. Geopolitical competition has returned. Economic relationships are increasingly viewed through the lens of national security. Technological change has accelerated political communication. Social media has amplified political personalities. At the same time, governments face overlapping crises that often require rapid decisions rather than lengthy institutional deliberation. Under these conditions, leadership itself becomes more consequential.
This week’s developments provide a useful illustration of that trend. Negotiations involving Iran continue taking place within established diplomatic frameworks, yet much of the global attention remains focused on individual political leaders. The arrival of Vice President J.D. Vance in Switzerland generated significant interest because observers increasingly view senior political intervention as essential to diplomatic progress. Reports surrounding President Trump’s role in negotiations, his public criticism of Israeli actions and his comments regarding regional diplomacy similarly attracted attention because markets, governments and media organisations understand that individual decisions can influence outcomes in ways institutions alone often cannot.
The significance of these developments extends beyond the Middle East. For decades, many policymakers expected diplomacy to become increasingly institutionalised. International organisations, permanent diplomatic channels and multilateral forums would gradually reduce dependence on personal relationships between leaders. Yet many of the most important diplomatic breakthroughs of recent years have relied heavily on direct engagement between senior political figures. Institutions remain indispensable because they provide structure and legitimacy, but momentum frequently emerges from leadership. The ability of individual leaders to build trust, apply pressure, negotiate compromises or alter strategic calculations continues to shape outcomes in ways that many post-Cold War assumptions underestimated.
The relationship between the United States and Israel highlights this reality particularly clearly. Discussions surrounding regional security increasingly focus on the personal interactions between political leaders rather than exclusively on the formal relationship between governments. Public statements, private conversations and personal credibility now influence diplomatic calculations alongside traditional institutional considerations. Whether one views this development positively or negatively, it reflects a broader shift in how international politics functions. Leadership has become increasingly visible because leadership increasingly matters.
A similar pattern is visible in Europe. The dispute between Poland and Ukraine surrounding the renaming of a Ukrainian special forces unit illustrates how individual political decisions can influence relationships that are otherwise supported by extensive institutional cooperation. Poland remains one of Ukraine’s most important partners. European support for Ukraine remains substantial. Military cooperation continues. Yet a symbolic issue involving political leadership generated significant diplomatic attention because leaders retain the ability to shape political narratives and public perceptions even when broader strategic interests remain aligned. Institutions provide stability, but leadership often determines how that stability is interpreted and maintained.
Russia’s decision to release Filipino nationals following discussions between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and President Vladimir Putin provides another example. Diplomatic channels undoubtedly played an important role, yet the event was widely interpreted as evidence of the continued importance of leader-to-leader engagement. The release was not viewed primarily as the product of institutional processes. Instead, attention focused on the political relationship and direct communication between national leaders. Similar patterns can be observed repeatedly across international affairs, where personal diplomacy increasingly complements formal diplomatic mechanisms.
This trend is equally visible within domestic politics. Reports concerning British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s political future attracted considerable attention despite the absence of any immediate institutional change. The British government remains operational. Parliament continues functioning. Constitutional structures remain intact. Yet speculation surrounding a single political leader quickly became a major international story because investors, allies and voters increasingly recognise the influence leaders can exert over policy direction. The stability of institutions matters enormously, but so does the identity of the individual leading them.
Developments in Albania reflect a related dynamic. Opposition to a major development project associated with Jared Kushner evolved into a broader debate about governance, influence and national priorities. The controversy demonstrates how personalities increasingly become focal points for wider political discussions. Public debates often crystallise around individuals because individuals provide tangible representations of larger economic, social and political questions. This phenomenon is not unique to Albania. Similar dynamics are visible across democracies and authoritarian systems alike.
Part of the explanation lies in how technology has transformed politics. During much of the twentieth century, citizens primarily experienced politics through institutions. Governments communicated through official channels. News travelled relatively slowly. Political leaders remained important, but they were often filtered through layers of bureaucracy, media organisations and institutional structures. Today’s environment operates very differently. Political leaders communicate directly with millions of people. Statements made in one capital can influence markets around the world within minutes. Social media platforms reward visibility, personality and immediacy. As a result, political leadership occupies a more prominent place within public life than many institutional theorists anticipated.
The return of geopolitical competition has amplified these trends. During periods of relative stability, institutions often function effectively because strategic objectives remain broadly predictable. During periods of uncertainty, however, leadership becomes more important because governments face decisions that existing frameworks may not fully anticipate. The war in Ukraine, tensions surrounding Taiwan, conflicts in the Middle East and disputes over trade, technology and industrial policy have created an environment in which rapid adaptation is frequently required. Institutions provide continuity, but leaders increasingly provide flexibility.
This does not mean institutions are becoming irrelevant. In fact, one of the most important observations from recent years is how resilient many institutions have proven to be. The European Union continues functioning despite political disagreements among member states. NATO has adapted to changing security realities. International financial institutions remain deeply embedded within the global economy. The persistence of these organisations demonstrates that institutional frameworks continue to provide enormous value. The mistake is not believing that institutions matter. The mistake may have been assuming that stronger institutions would automatically reduce the importance of leadership.
Increasingly, the evidence suggests that institutions and leadership perform different functions. Institutions provide continuity, legitimacy and predictability. Leaders provide direction, prioritisation and adaptation. One cannot easily replace the other. The post-Cold War expectation that systems would steadily supersede personalities may therefore have misunderstood the relationship between the two. Strong institutions do not eliminate the importance of leadership. In many cases, they simply create a platform from which leadership can operate more effectively.
This distinction carries significant implications for the future. If leadership matters more than many assumed, then political transitions become more consequential. Elections attract greater international attention. Diplomatic relationships become more dependent on personal trust. Leadership changes can influence foreign policy, economic strategy and security priorities more rapidly than institutional models often predict. Governments may therefore need to devote greater attention not only to building resilient institutions but also to managing the political volatility that accompanies increasingly leader-driven politics.
The most important signal emerging from this week’s headlines is therefore not simply that tensions persist in the Middle East, that Ukraine remains central to European security or that political debates continue generating controversy. Those developments are important, but they point toward a broader shift in how international affairs operate. For much of the post-Cold War era, many policymakers believed that institutions would steadily become the primary source of stability within the international system. Recent events suggest a more complicated reality. Institutions remain essential, yet leadership itself has re-emerged as a strategic variable shaping diplomacy, security and political outcomes across multiple regions simultaneously.
The world is not moving away from institutions. The European Union, NATO and countless other organisations continue demonstrating their relevance every day. What appears to be changing is the balance between institutions and leadership. The expectation that systems would gradually overshadow personalities now looks less convincing than it once did. Instead, governments increasingly operate in an environment where institutions provide the foundation for stability, while leaders exert significant influence over how that stability is maintained, challenged or transformed. The defining lesson of this week’s developments may therefore be that the post-Cold War dream of politics becoming increasingly impersonal was never entirely realistic. Institutions matter enormously, but the people leading them continue to matter more than many expected.
References:
Middle East Diplomacy & Leadership
• Axios — Vance travels to Switzerland for nuclear talks with Iran
https://www.axios.com/2026/06/20/vance-iran-talks-switzerland
• The Detroit News — US disputes Iranian claims about closing Strait of Hormuz as negotiators arrive in Switzerland
• Al Jazeera — Israeli attacks kill dozens in Lebanon as US, Iran to hold talks on truce
• The Times of Israel — Trump claims he can control IDF actions in Lebanon because Israelis respect him
Europe, Ukraine & Political Leadership
• The Washington Post — Polish president strips Zelensky of honor after special forces unit’s renaming
• Deutsche Welle — Are Ukraine drones really exposing gaps in Russia’s defense?
https://www.dw.com/en/are-ukraine-drones-really-exposing-gaps-in-russias-defense/a-77639467
Leadership, Governance & Domestic Politics
• CNBC — Report says UK PM Starmer ready to quit, but source says he is still focused on the job
• The New York Times — Luxury Kushner Project Collides With Albanian Discontent
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/21/world/europe/albania-kushner-project-protests.html
• BBC News — Colombia’s brutal internal conflict is defining its presidential election
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgqv8q1ndpo
Global Politics, Trade & Strategic Competition
• Fortune — A new trade war may be brewing. This time, Europe is taking a page from Trump’s playbook
https://fortune.com/2026/06/20/europe-china-trade-war-trump-tariffs-section-301-dumping-subsidies/
• Associated Press — Russia frees 24 Filipinos after Marcos talks with Putin
https://apnews.com/article/philippines-russia-putin-marcos-3b0b29e187338047c5f01671b348399c
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