Sunday Essay 28 | 2026
Iran, China and Ukraine Reveal Why Strategic Continuity Is Becoming the New Foundation of Global Power
SUNDAY ESSAYS
7/5/20268 min read
Power is often measured through visible indicators. Governments compare economic output, military expenditure, technological innovation and diplomatic influence because these metrics appear to reveal which countries are rising and which are falling. They dominate political speeches, economic forecasts and international rankings. Yet they explain only part of why some states navigate prolonged periods of uncertainty more successfully than others. Increasingly, the defining question is no longer how much power a country possesses, but whether it can preserve political direction, institutional stability and strategic purpose while the international environment changes around it.
This distinction is becoming more important because the nature of international politics is changing. For much of the past century, governments generally approached crises as temporary disruptions. Wars eventually concluded, financial crises subsided, political transitions stabilised, and markets gradually returned to equilibrium. Policymakers, therefore, concentrated on managing individual events before attempting to restore a previous sense of normality. Today’s strategic environment looks markedly different. Many of the challenges confronting governments no longer have obvious endpoints. The war in Ukraine has entered another year with no clear conclusion. Strategic competition between the United States and China continues to deepen across trade, technology and security. Climate events occur with increasing regularity rather than as isolated emergencies. Political fragmentation has become a recurring feature of democratic societies instead of a temporary phase. Rather than moving from one crisis to the next, governments increasingly operate in an environment where several long-term pressures unfold simultaneously.
That reality is quietly changing how states understand power. Military capability remains indispensable, but armed forces alone cannot sustain a country’s strategic position if industrial production falters, political institutions lose legitimacy, or alliances weaken over time. Likewise, economic growth offers little reassurance if supply chains become vulnerable to geopolitical pressure or governments struggle to maintain public confidence during prolonged uncertainty. Increasingly, power depends not only upon acquiring resources but upon preserving the systems that allow those resources to be used consistently over many years. Continuity, once regarded largely as an administrative concern, is becoming a strategic capability.
This week’s developments illustrate that transformation across remarkably different political systems. Iran’s transition following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has naturally attracted global attention because of the office itself. Yet the broader strategic question extends well beyond the identity of his successor. Regional governments, energy markets and international negotiators are primarily watching to determine whether the Iranian state can preserve continuity during one of its most significant political transitions in decades. Leadership changes inevitably create uncertainty, but durable institutions are ultimately judged by their ability to ensure that uncertainty does not become instability. In that sense, succession is not simply a constitutional process. It becomes a test of institutional resilience, political legitimacy and strategic continuity simultaneously.
China presents a different, but equally revealing, example. Reports describing President Xi Jinping’s continued reliance on trusted political allies, alongside the promotion of senior military officers following an extensive anti-corruption campaign, are often interpreted as signs of personal authority. They also reveal something broader. Beijing is attempting to demonstrate that leadership renewal will reinforce rather than disrupt long-term national objectives. The appointments matter because they signal consistency of direction inside both the Communist Party and the People’s Liberation Army. Personnel change is inevitable in every political system. Strategic uncertainty is not. The distinction between the two is becoming increasingly important.
This principle extends well beyond leadership itself. Governments increasingly recognise that continuity depends upon far more than successful political succession. It relies upon defence industries capable of maintaining production during prolonged crises, energy systems able to withstand disruption, diplomatic relationships that survive changes of government and institutions that retain public confidence even under sustained pressure. Continuity is therefore not a single policy objective but a characteristic that emerges when multiple parts of the state continue functioning together despite external shocks. It is less visible than military hardware or economic statistics, yet it often proves more decisive over longer periods.
Ukraine continues demonstrating this reality with particular clarity. Attention understandably focuses on territorial developments and military operations, yet the conflict has increasingly become a contest over whether each side can preserve its capacity to continue fighting. Ukrainian strikes against Russian energy infrastructure and oil facilities are strategically significant because they target the systems supporting military power rather than military power alone. Russia’s reported fuel shortages similarly illustrate that prolonged wars gradually become tests of economic organisation, industrial production and logistical endurance as much as battlefield performance. Modern conflicts increasingly reward governments capable of sustaining national effort over time rather than those capable of achieving rapid tactical success.
Perhaps this explains why defence planning is evolving in parallel. The Global Combat Air Programme, bringing together the United Kingdom, Japan and Italy to develop a next-generation fighter aircraft, represents far more than an investment in future military technology. It reflects a shared recognition that strategic capabilities cannot simply be assembled when crises emerge. Industrial expertise, advanced manufacturing, research capacity and international cooperation require decades of sustained investment. Governments are therefore planning not only for future conflicts but also for preserving the industrial ecosystems that allow military capability to exist in the first place. Defence procurement is increasingly becoming an exercise in maintaining continuity across generations rather than preparing for a single conflict.
Taken individually, these developments concern different regions, institutions and political systems. Together, however, they suggest that governments are beginning to judge power through a broader lens than military strength or economic performance alone. Increasingly, the defining question is whether states can preserve strategic direction while adapting to continuous change. That represents an important shift in international politics. The challenge is no longer simply responding effectively when disruption occurs. It is ensuring that disruption does not fundamentally alter a country’s ability to pursue its long-term objectives.
If continuity is becoming a defining measure of power, it also changes how governments evaluate alliances. Alliances have traditionally been understood through the military capabilities they combine or the threats they seek to deter. Increasingly, however, their value also lies in their ability to preserve strategic consistency over long periods of political change. Governments enter and leave office, national priorities evolve, and domestic politics become more fragmented, yet alliances are expected to provide reassurance that broader strategic commitments will endure. That expectation has become considerably more demanding in recent years, requiring alliances to demonstrate not only military credibility but also political durability.
NATO illustrates this challenge particularly well. The alliance today operates within a far more complex political environment than it did even a decade ago. Member states differ over defence spending, industrial policy, relations with China and approaches to the Middle East. Reports suggesting that President Erdoğan has encountered less resistance from NATO partners partly reflect an understanding that preserving cohesion sometimes carries greater strategic value than pursuing complete political consensus. Unity is no longer treated as an inevitable consequence of shared interests. It has become an objective requiring continuous diplomatic management. The credibility of an alliance increasingly depends upon its ability to remain coherent despite internal disagreements rather than because those disagreements no longer exist.
This same emphasis on continuity increasingly shapes industrial strategy. The Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) is often described as the development of a next-generation fighter aircraft, but its strategic significance extends much further. It represents a decades-long commitment to preserving engineering expertise, advanced manufacturing capacity and technological cooperation between partner countries. Modern defence programmes are becoming industrial ecosystems rather than procurement projects. Their value lies not only in the capabilities eventually delivered but also in maintaining the knowledge, supply chains and research networks required to sustain future defence industries. Governments are investing in continuity of capability as much as capability itself.
The importance of continuity becomes even clearer when examining institutions beyond government. Recent tensions within the Catholic Church, including the ordination of bishops by an ultratraditionalist group despite opposition from Pope Leo, demonstrate that long-standing institutions face many of the same strategic challenges as states. Every enduring organisation must balance adaptation with legitimacy. Change too little, and institutions risk losing relevance. Change too quickly, and they risk weakening the traditions that underpin their authority. Although the Vatican and national governments operate in entirely different spheres, both confront the same underlying question: how can institutions evolve while preserving the continuity that gives them credibility? Increasingly, legitimacy depends less on resisting change than on managing it successfully.
The same principle extends into economic strategy. For decades, governments have frequently evaluated success through growth rates, productivity and trade volumes. Those indicators remain important, yet they reveal relatively little about how economies perform under sustained pressure. Recent years have encouraged policymakers to ask different questions. Can critical industries continue operating if international supply chains are disrupted? Can energy systems withstand prolonged geopolitical tensions? Do domestic institutions possess sufficient public trust to implement difficult policies during periods of uncertainty? These questions concern continuity rather than expansion. They reflect a growing recognition that long-term competitiveness depends not only upon creating prosperity but also upon preserving the conditions that allow prosperity to continue.
This broader perspective also helps explain why governments increasingly invest in projects whose benefits may not become fully apparent for many years. Infrastructure, defence industries, semiconductor production, intelligence cooperation and strategic energy systems all require sustained political commitment extending well beyond individual electoral cycles. Such investments often produce few immediate political rewards, yet they strengthen a country’s ability to maintain strategic direction during future periods of disruption. Increasingly, governments appear willing to accept higher short-term costs in exchange for greater long-term continuity, recognising that rebuilding lost capabilities is usually far more expensive than preserving them.
The implications extend beyond governments themselves. Businesses increasingly evaluate political predictability alongside market size. Investors pay closer attention to institutional stability, regulatory consistency and supply-chain resilience than they did only a decade ago. International organisations similarly devote greater attention to preparedness, crisis management and long-term planning rather than assuming that economic integration alone will guarantee stability. Across both the public and private sectors, continuity is becoming an increasingly valuable asset because uncertainty is no longer regarded as exceptional. It is becoming part of the strategic environment within which decisions must routinely be made.
Perhaps this is the most important lesson emerging from this week’s developments. Iran’s leadership transition, China’s military appointments, Ukraine’s continued campaign against Russian infrastructure, NATO’s internal diplomacy and the development of GCAP initially appear to belong to entirely separate political stories. Yet each reflects a common reality. Governments are no longer preparing merely to overcome individual crises. They are attempting to ensure that their institutions, alliances and strategic priorities remain effective despite living through a period in which disruption is likely to remain persistent rather than temporary.
Power has never been determined solely by the resources a country possesses. Throughout history, it has also depended upon whether those resources could be organised, sustained and directed towards long-term objectives. What is changing today is the growing recognition that continuity itself has become one of the principal conditions for achieving those objectives. Military strength remains essential. Economic prosperity remains indispensable. Technological innovation will continue shaping international competition. Yet each increasingly depends upon a government’s ability to preserve political direction, institutional legitimacy and strategic coherence while adapting to a rapidly changing world.
The defining signal from this week’s headlines is therefore not simply that geopolitical competition continues to intensify. It is that governments are increasingly measuring success not only by what they can build, but by what they can preserve. In an international system characterised by prolonged rivalry, technological transformation and recurring geopolitical shocks, the states most likely to shape the coming decades may not be those capable of changing course most dramatically, but those capable of maintaining coherent direction while adapting with confidence to an increasingly unpredictable world.
References:
Iran, Leadership & Regional Stability
• CNN — Live updates: Whereabouts of Iran’s new supreme leader unknown as public mourning of Khamenei continues
https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/04/world/live-news/iran-khamenei-funeral-war-trump
China, Leadership & Military Modernisation
• The New York Times — As Xi Looks to Extend His Rule, He Leans on a Longtime Ally
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/05/world/asia/china-xi-leadership-cai-qi.html
• NPR — China’s military promotes 2 new generals after anti-corruption purge thins ranks
Ukraine, Russia & Strategic Continuity
• Deutsche Welle — Ukraine strikes oil terminals near St. Petersburg in Russia
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-strikes-oil-terminals-near-st-petersburg-in-russia/a-77830574
• Fortune — Russia’s fuel crisis is so bad that a mom and her baby waited in line for 18 hours to get gas
• Bloomberg — Russia Said It Captured Key Ukraine Stronghold in Donetsk Region
Alliances, Defence & Industrial Strategy
• The Wall Street Journal — With Trump in His Corner, Erdogan Gets an Easier Ride From NATO Partners
• Defense News — Multibillion-dollar contract secures ‘major step forward’ for GCAP fighter jet
Institutions, Society & Continuity
• Reuters — Rebel Catholic group ordains bishops in Switzerland, defying Pope Leo
• NBC News — Who are the ultratraditionalists rebelling against Pope Leo and triggering a rupture with the Vatican?
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