Tuesday Brief 23 | 2026
Ukraine, China and NATO Reveal Why Deterrence Is No Longer Taken for Granted
TUESDAY BRIEFS
7/7/2026
One of the clearest signals emerging from this week’s developments is that governments increasingly believe deterrence can no longer be assumed to function automatically. Throughout much of the post-Cold War period, many advanced economies operated on the expectation that stable alliances, credible militaries and expanding economic integration would discourage major confrontation. Today, policymakers increasingly behave as though deterrence requires constant reinforcement. Military investment, diplomatic engagement and industrial capacity are no longer viewed as occasional responses to crises but as continuous requirements in an international environment characterised by sustained strategic competition.
The NATO summit in Turkey illustrates this changing reality. President Trump’s visit comes as Russia continues large-scale strikes against Kyiv while alliance members debate defence spending and long-term support for Ukraine. The discussion is no longer simply about responding to Russia’s latest attacks. It is about maintaining the credibility of NATO’s collective commitments. Governments increasingly recognise that deterrence depends as much upon political cohesion and sustained investment as upon military capability itself. The perception of unity has become almost as strategically important as military strength.
Canada’s announcement of the largest defence procurement programme in its history reflects a similar conclusion. By explicitly describing today’s international environment as a “dangerous and divided world,” Ottawa signalled that defence planning is increasingly driven by long-term geopolitical uncertainty rather than immediate military threats alone. Governments that once prioritised efficiency and fiscal restraint now appear more willing to invest heavily in capabilities designed to preserve strategic flexibility decades into the future.
China’s reported submarine-launched ballistic missile test reinforces the same broader pattern. Nuclear deterrence has always depended upon credibility, yet maintaining that credibility increasingly requires continual technological modernisation rather than reliance on existing capabilities. Strategic competition is becoming dynamic rather than static, with governments constantly seeking to preserve deterrence as rivals develop new military technologies.
Ukraine continues demonstrating how deterrence extends beyond conventional military forces. Deep strikes against Russia’s largest refinery illustrate that modern warfare increasingly targets the economic systems supporting military power. Rather than focusing exclusively on battlefield gains, Ukraine continues seeking to raise the long-term costs of Russian aggression by degrading infrastructure that enables sustained military operations. Deterrence, therefore, increasingly operates through economic pressure alongside military capability.
Events in the Strait of Hormuz reinforce the importance of maritime security within this broader strategic picture. The attack on a tanker demonstrates how relatively limited incidents can rapidly influence energy markets and international shipping. Governments remain acutely aware that safeguarding critical trade routes contributes directly to broader geopolitical stability. Maritime deterrence increasingly depends upon continuous presence and international coordination rather than assuming commercial routes will remain secure by default.
Taken together, these developments suggest that governments are adapting to a world where deterrence must be actively maintained rather than passively inherited. Military alliances require continual political investment. Defence industries require sustained production. Economic resilience increasingly complements conventional military power. Diplomatic engagement remains essential because uncertainty itself can undermine strategic stability.
The defining signal this week is therefore not simply that geopolitical tensions remain elevated. It is that governments increasingly regard deterrence as an ongoing process rather than a permanent condition. Whether through NATO, defence procurement, military modernisation or the protection of critical infrastructure, states are investing in the credibility of their commitments because they increasingly believe that credibility itself has become one of the most important foundations of international security.
References:
NATO, Alliances & European Security
• CNBC — Trump heads to Turkey as NATO is strained by Russian attacks, U.S. impatience
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/07/trump-nato-turkey-russia-ukraine-spending.html
• The Washington Post — Deadly Russian strikes hit Ukraine’s capital ahead of key NATO meeting
• Politico Europe — Leave ‘Queen’ Meloni alone, Belgian defense minister warns Trump
https://www.politico.eu/article/dont-touch-queen-meloni-belgian-defense-minister-warns-trump/
Defence, Military Modernisation & Deterrence
• BBC News — Canada makes largest defence procurement deal in its history, citing ‘dangerous and divided world’
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4ddppz3jqo
• The Wall Street Journal — Chinese Nuclear Submarine Test-Launches Long-Range Missile
https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/chinese-nuclear-submarine-ballistic-missile-launch-49923882
• Reuters — Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s largest refinery, in one of deepest strikes yet
Middle East, Maritime Security & Regional Stability
• Associated Press — Tanker set ablaze after being struck by projectile in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran mourns Khamenei
https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-war-oil-4732228810c9839a1258309ad43b8289
• The Times of Israel — Hamas dissolves Gaza government ahead of eventual transfer of power to technocrats
Climate, Crisis Management & National Preparedness
• The New York Times — Wildfires Force Evacuation of Thousands in Southwest France
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/06/world/europe/france-wildfires-evacuation.html
• The Guardian — Typhoon Maysak kills two and forces thousands to evacuate in China
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